Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century
Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Review › fagfællebedømt
Standard
Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) : facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century. / Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtova, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga.
I: Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Bind 4, 41, 27.12.2017.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Review › fagfællebedømt
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Author
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI)
T2 - facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century
AU - Groisman, Pavel
AU - Shugart, Herman
AU - Kicklighter, David
AU - Henebry, Geoffrey
AU - Tchebakova, Nadezhda
AU - Maksyutov, Shamil
AU - Monier, Erwan
AU - Gutman, Garik
AU - Gulev, Sergey
AU - Qi, Jiaguo
AU - Prishchepov, Alexander
AU - Kukavskaya, Elena
AU - Porfiriev, Boris
AU - Shiklomanov, Alexander
AU - Loboda, Tatiana
AU - Shiklomanov, Nikolay
AU - Nghiem, Son
AU - Bergen, Kathleen
AU - Albrechtova, Jana
AU - Chen, Jiquan
AU - Shahgedanova, Maria
AU - Shvidenko, Anatoly
AU - Speranskaya, Nina
AU - Soja, Amber
AU - de Beurs, Kirsten
AU - Bulygina, Olga
AU - McCarty, Jessica
AU - Zhuang, Qianlai
AU - Zolina, Olga
PY - 2017/12/27
Y1 - 2017/12/27
N2 - During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across NorthernEurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted ina variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia FutureInitiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth SciencePartnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoingenvironmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. Akey principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies codesignedwith regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental andinstitutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base tosupport the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge.It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFIscience questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are brieflyjustified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme andinclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes inthe biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmentalchange; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks betweenthe Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphereessential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scalewater withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities forfuture human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the finalstage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluationof economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation andadaptation efforts.
AB - During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across NorthernEurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted ina variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia FutureInitiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth SciencePartnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoingenvironmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. Akey principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies codesignedwith regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental andinstitutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base tosupport the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge.It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFIscience questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are brieflyjustified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme andinclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes inthe biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmentalchange; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks betweenthe Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphereessential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scalewater withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities forfuture human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the finalstage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluationof economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation andadaptation efforts.
KW - Environmental changes
KW - Northern Eurasia
KW - Ecosystems dynamics
KW - Terrestrial water cycle
KW - Cryosphere retreat
KW - Extreme and inclement environmental conditions
KW - Sustainable development
KW - Land cover and land use change
KW - Integrated assessment models for decision-makers
U2 - 10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5
DO - 10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5
M3 - Review
VL - 4
JO - Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
JF - Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
SN - 2197-4284
M1 - 41
ER -
ID: 191201395