Dynamics of cholera outbreaks in great Lakes region of Africa, 1978-2008

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • Didier Bompangue Nkoko
  • Patrick Giraudoux
  • Pierre Denis Plisnier
  • Annie Mutombo Tinda
  • Martine Piarroux
  • Bertrand Sudre
  • Horion, Stéphanie
  • Jean Jacques Muyembe Tamfum
  • Benoît Kebela Ilunga
  • Renaud Piarroux

Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977-1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system-based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Niño warm events (abnormally warm El Niños) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study.

Original languageEnglish
JournalEmerging Infectious Diseases (Print Edition)
Issue number11
Pages (from-to)2026-2034
Number of pages9
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes

ID: 160859884