Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Standard

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. / Box, Jason E.; Hubbard, Alun; Bahr, David B.; Colgan, William T.; Fettweis, Xavier; Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Wehrlé, Adrien; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Bjørk, Anders A.; Fausto, Robert S.

In: Nature climate change, Vol. 12, 2022.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Box, JE, Hubbard, A, Bahr, DB, Colgan, WT, Fettweis, X, Mankoff, KD, Wehrlé, A, Noël, B, van den Broeke, MR, Wouters, B, Bjørk, AA & Fausto, RS 2022, 'Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise', Nature climate change, vol. 12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2

APA

Box, J. E., Hubbard, A., Bahr, D. B., Colgan, W. T., Fettweis, X., Mankoff, K. D., Wehrlé, A., Noël, B., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B., Bjørk, A. A., & Fausto, R. S. (2022). Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. Nature climate change, 12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2

Vancouver

Box JE, Hubbard A, Bahr DB, Colgan WT, Fettweis X, Mankoff KD et al. Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. Nature climate change. 2022;12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2

Author

Box, Jason E. ; Hubbard, Alun ; Bahr, David B. ; Colgan, William T. ; Fettweis, Xavier ; Mankoff, Kenneth D. ; Wehrlé, Adrien ; Noël, Brice ; van den Broeke, Michiel R. ; Wouters, Bert ; Bjørk, Anders A. ; Fausto, Robert S. / Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. In: Nature climate change. 2022 ; Vol. 12.

Bibtex

@article{9d5ac87fbab14f1cbad4621dffb08e69,
title = "Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise",
abstract = "Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland{\textquoteright}s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland{\textquoteright}s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.",
author = "Box, {Jason E.} and Alun Hubbard and Bahr, {David B.} and Colgan, {William T.} and Xavier Fettweis and Mankoff, {Kenneth D.} and Adrien Wehrl{\'e} and Brice No{\"e}l and {van den Broeke}, {Michiel R.} and Bert Wouters and Bj{\o}rk, {Anders A.} and Fausto, {Robert S.}",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",
year = "2022",
doi = "10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
journal = "Nature Climate Change",
issn = "1758-678X",
publisher = "nature publishing group",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

AU - Box, Jason E.

AU - Hubbard, Alun

AU - Bahr, David B.

AU - Colgan, William T.

AU - Fettweis, Xavier

AU - Mankoff, Kenneth D.

AU - Wehrlé, Adrien

AU - Noël, Brice

AU - van den Broeke, Michiel R.

AU - Wouters, Bert

AU - Bjørk, Anders A.

AU - Fausto, Robert S.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

AB - Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2

DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85137015068

VL - 12

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

ER -

ID: 319786842