TY - JOUR

T1 - A framework to assess multi-hazard physical climate risk for power generation projects from publicly-accessible sources

AU - Luo, Tianyi

AU - Cheng, Yan

AU - Falzon, James

AU - Kölbel, Julian

AU - Zhou, Lihuan

AU - Wu, Yili

AU - Habchi, Amir

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Demand for information about physical climate risk is growing, particularly for the power generation sector, given its size and pronounced exposure to climate hazards. However, quantifying physical climate risks for a large number of assets remains challenging. Here we introduce a scalable and transparent methodology that enables multi-hazard physical climate risk assessments for any thermal or hydro power generation project. The methodology relies on basic power plant type and geolocation data inputs, publicly-available climate datasets, and hazard- and technology-specific vulnerability factors, to translate hazard severity into generation losses. We apply the methodology to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's early 2021 thermal and hydro power generation portfolios of 80 assets. We show that under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, those 80 power plants could experience a 4.0-10.9 TWh loss in annual generation (or 1.87-5.07% of total annual maximum generation) by 2030 compared to its baseline losses of 0.70--0.87 TWh (or 0.33--0.41%). One of the largest drivers of the increased risk is rising water temperatures, which is currently overlooked by mainstream climate risk disclosure guidelines.

AB - Demand for information about physical climate risk is growing, particularly for the power generation sector, given its size and pronounced exposure to climate hazards. However, quantifying physical climate risks for a large number of assets remains challenging. Here we introduce a scalable and transparent methodology that enables multi-hazard physical climate risk assessments for any thermal or hydro power generation project. The methodology relies on basic power plant type and geolocation data inputs, publicly-available climate datasets, and hazard- and technology-specific vulnerability factors, to translate hazard severity into generation losses. We apply the methodology to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's early 2021 thermal and hydro power generation portfolios of 80 assets. We show that under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, those 80 power plants could experience a 4.0-10.9 TWh loss in annual generation (or 1.87-5.07% of total annual maximum generation) by 2030 compared to its baseline losses of 0.70--0.87 TWh (or 0.33--0.41%). One of the largest drivers of the increased risk is rising water temperatures, which is currently overlooked by mainstream climate risk disclosure guidelines.

KW - Faculty of Science

KW - Climate-change impacts

KW - Natural hazards

KW - Projection and prediction

KW - Climate physical risk assessment

KW - Power generation

U2 - 10.1038/s43247-023-00782-w

DO - 10.1038/s43247-023-00782-w

M3 - Journal article

VL - 4

JO - Communications Earth and Environment

JF - Communications Earth and Environment

SN - 2662-4435

M1 - 117

ER -