Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers
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Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers. / Khan, Shfaqat A.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Bevis, Michael; Kjær, Kurt H.; Mouginot, Jérémie; Løkkegaard, Anja; Holland, David M.; Aschwanden, Andy; Zhang, Bao; Helm, Veit; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Colgan, William; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Liu, Lin; Hansen, Karina; Barletta, Valentina; Dahl-Jensen, Trine S.; Søndergaard, Anne Sofie; Csatho, Beata M.; Sasgen, Ingo; Box, Jason; Schenk, Toni.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 11, No. 1, 5718, 12.2020.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers
AU - Khan, Shfaqat A.
AU - Bjørk, Anders A.
AU - Bamber, Jonathan L.
AU - Morlighem, Mathieu
AU - Bevis, Michael
AU - Kjær, Kurt H.
AU - Mouginot, Jérémie
AU - Løkkegaard, Anja
AU - Holland, David M.
AU - Aschwanden, Andy
AU - Zhang, Bao
AU - Helm, Veit
AU - Korsgaard, Niels J.
AU - Colgan, William
AU - Larsen, Nicolaj K.
AU - Liu, Lin
AU - Hansen, Karina
AU - Barletta, Valentina
AU - Dahl-Jensen, Trine S.
AU - Søndergaard, Anne Sofie
AU - Csatho, Beata M.
AU - Sasgen, Ingo
AU - Box, Jason
AU - Schenk, Toni
PY - 2020/12
Y1 - 2020/12
N2 - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.
AB - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5
DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 33203883
AN - SCOPUS:85096100972
VL - 11
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
IS - 1
M1 - 5718
ER -
ID: 251954717