Understanding Turning Points in Dryland Ecosystem Functioning (U-TURN)
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Pressures on dryland ecosystems are ever growing. Large-scale vegetation
die-offs, biodiversity loss and loss in ecosystem services are reported
as a result of unsustainable land use, climate change and extreme
events. Yet major uncertainties remain regarding our capability to
accurately assess on-going land changes, as well as to comprehensively
attribute drivers to these changes. Indeed ecosystem response to
external pressures is often complex (e.g. non-linear) and non-unique
(i.e. same response, different drivers). Besides critical knowledge on
ecosystem stability and coping capacities to extreme events has still to
be consolidated.Recent advances in time series analysis and in the
assessment of breakpoint open a new door in ecosystem research as they
allow for the detection of turning points and tipping points in
ecosystem development (Horion et al., 2016 and 2019). Identifying
ecosystems that have significantly changed their way of functioning,
i.e. that have tipped to a new functioning state, is of crucial
importance for Ecology studies. These extremes cases of vegetation
instability are golden mines for researches that try to understand how
resilient are ecosystems to climate change and to non-sustainable use of
land.This is precisely what the U-TURN project is about:Developing
methods for detecting turning points in dryland ecosystem functioning;
Here we defined turning point in ecosystem functioning as a key moment
in the ecosystem development where its functioning is significantly
changed or altered without implying the irreversibility of the process
(Horion et al. (2016), by opposition to the term 'tipping point' that
implies irreversibility (Lenton et al. 2008). Studying the contribution
of climate and human pressure (e.g. land-use intensification, human
induced land soil degradation) in pushing the ecosystem outside its safe
operating space; Here we used Earth Observation techniques coupled with
Dynamic Vegetation Models to get process-based insights on the drivers
of the observed changes in ecosystem functioning. Exploring whether
early warning signal of turning points can be identified. During our
talk, we will present key methodological advances being achieved within
the U-TURN project, and showcase some of our major findings in relation
to abrupt changes in dryland ecosystem functioning.References:Horion,
S., Ivits, E., De Keersmaecker, W., Tagesson, T., Vogt, J., &
Fensholt, R. (2019). Mapping European ecosystem change types in response
to land-use change, extreme climate events, and land degradation. Land
Degradation & Development, 30(8), 951-963.
doi:10.1002/ldr.3282Horion, S., Prishchepov, A. V., Verbesselt, J., de
Beurs, K., Tagesson, T., & Fensholt, R. (2016). Revealing turning
points in ecosystem functioning over the Northern Eurasian agricultural
frontier. Global Change Biology, 22(8), 2801-2817.
doi:10.1111/gcb.13267Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W.,
Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). Tipping
elements in the Earth's climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,
105(6), 1786-1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105 Project website:
http://uturndryland.wixsite.com/uturnThis research is funded by the
Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (Grant/Award Number:SR/00/339)
Original language | English |
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Publication date | 2020 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2020 |
Event | EGU General Assembly 2020: Online - Online Duration: 4 May 2020 → 8 May 2020 https://www.egu2020.eu/ |
Conference
Conference | EGU General Assembly 2020 |
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Location | Online |
Period | 04/05/2020 → 08/05/2020 |
Internet address |
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