Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

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Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. / Zohner, Constantin M.; Mo, Lidong; Renner, Susanne S.; Svenning, Jens Christian; Vitasse, Yann; Benito, Blas M.; Ordonez, Alejandro; Baumgarten, Frederik; Bastin, Jean François; Sebald, Veronica; Reich, Peter B.; Liang, Jingjing; Nabuurs, Gert Jan; De-Migueln, Sergio; Alberti, Giorgio; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Balazy, Radomir; Brändli, Urs Beat; Chen, Han Y.H.; Chisholm, Chelsea; Cienciala, Emil; Dayanandan, Selvadurai; Fayle, Tom M.; Frizzera, Lorenzo; Gianelle, Damiano; Jagodzinski, Andrzej M.; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Jucker, Tommaso; Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian; Khan, Mohammed Latif; Kim, Hyun Seok; Korjus, Henn; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist; Laarmann, Diana; Langn, Mait; Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Tomasz; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Paquette, Alain; Pretzsch, Hans; Saikia, Purabi; Schall, Peter; Seben, Vladimír; Svoboda, Miroslav; Tikhonova, Elena; Viana, Helder; Zhang, Chunyu; Zhao, Xiuhai; Crowther, Thomas W.

In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 117, No. 22, 2020.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Zohner, CM, Mo, L, Renner, SS, Svenning, JC, Vitasse, Y, Benito, BM, Ordonez, A, Baumgarten, F, Bastin, JF, Sebald, V, Reich, PB, Liang, J, Nabuurs, GJ, De-Migueln, S, Alberti, G, Antón-Fernández, C, Balazy, R, Brändli, UB, Chen, HYH, Chisholm, C, Cienciala, E, Dayanandan, S, Fayle, TM, Frizzera, L, Gianelle, D, Jagodzinski, AM, Jaroszewicz, B, Jucker, T, Kepfer-Rojas, S, Khan, ML, Kim, HS, Korjus, H, Johannsen, VK, Laarmann, D, Langn, M, Zawila-Niedzwiecki, T, Niklaus, PA, Paquette, A, Pretzsch, H, Saikia, P, Schall, P, Seben, V, Svoboda, M, Tikhonova, E, Viana, H, Zhang, C, Zhao, X & Crowther, TW 2020, 'Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 117, no. 22. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920816117

APA

Zohner, C. M., Mo, L., Renner, S. S., Svenning, J. C., Vitasse, Y., Benito, B. M., Ordonez, A., Baumgarten, F., Bastin, J. F., Sebald, V., Reich, P. B., Liang, J., Nabuurs, G. J., De-Migueln, S., Alberti, G., Antón-Fernández, C., Balazy, R., Brändli, U. B., Chen, H. Y. H., ... Crowther, T. W. (2020). Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(22). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920816117

Vancouver

Zohner CM, Mo L, Renner SS, Svenning JC, Vitasse Y, Benito BM et al. Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020;117(22). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920816117

Author

Zohner, Constantin M. ; Mo, Lidong ; Renner, Susanne S. ; Svenning, Jens Christian ; Vitasse, Yann ; Benito, Blas M. ; Ordonez, Alejandro ; Baumgarten, Frederik ; Bastin, Jean François ; Sebald, Veronica ; Reich, Peter B. ; Liang, Jingjing ; Nabuurs, Gert Jan ; De-Migueln, Sergio ; Alberti, Giorgio ; Antón-Fernández, Clara ; Balazy, Radomir ; Brändli, Urs Beat ; Chen, Han Y.H. ; Chisholm, Chelsea ; Cienciala, Emil ; Dayanandan, Selvadurai ; Fayle, Tom M. ; Frizzera, Lorenzo ; Gianelle, Damiano ; Jagodzinski, Andrzej M. ; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan ; Jucker, Tommaso ; Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian ; Khan, Mohammed Latif ; Kim, Hyun Seok ; Korjus, Henn ; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist ; Laarmann, Diana ; Langn, Mait ; Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Tomasz ; Niklaus, Pascal A. ; Paquette, Alain ; Pretzsch, Hans ; Saikia, Purabi ; Schall, Peter ; Seben, Vladimír ; Svoboda, Miroslav ; Tikhonova, Elena ; Viana, Helder ; Zhang, Chunyu ; Zhao, Xiuhai ; Crowther, Thomas W. / Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 ; Vol. 117, No. 22.

Bibtex

@article{fbf1ce65738542d897360ea2065aacde,
title = "Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia",
abstract = "Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.",
keywords = "Climate change, Freezing damage, Late frost, Phenology, Spring leaf-out",
author = "Zohner, {Constantin M.} and Lidong Mo and Renner, {Susanne S.} and Svenning, {Jens Christian} and Yann Vitasse and Benito, {Blas M.} and Alejandro Ordonez and Frederik Baumgarten and Bastin, {Jean Fran{\c c}ois} and Veronica Sebald and Reich, {Peter B.} and Jingjing Liang and Nabuurs, {Gert Jan} and Sergio De-Migueln and Giorgio Alberti and Clara Ant{\'o}n-Fern{\'a}ndez and Radomir Balazy and Br{\"a}ndli, {Urs Beat} and Chen, {Han Y.H.} and Chelsea Chisholm and Emil Cienciala and Selvadurai Dayanandan and Fayle, {Tom M.} and Lorenzo Frizzera and Damiano Gianelle and Jagodzinski, {Andrzej M.} and Bogdan Jaroszewicz and Tommaso Jucker and Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas and Khan, {Mohammed Latif} and Kim, {Hyun Seok} and Henn Korjus and Johannsen, {Vivian Kvist} and Diana Laarmann and Mait Langn and Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki and Niklaus, {Pascal A.} and Alain Paquette and Hans Pretzsch and Purabi Saikia and Peter Schall and Vladim{\'i}r Seben and Miroslav Svoboda and Elena Tikhonova and Helder Viana and Chunyu Zhang and Xiuhai Zhao and Crowther, {Thomas W.}",
year = "2020",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.1920816117",
language = "English",
volume = "117",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
issn = "0027-8424",
publisher = "The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
number = "22",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

AU - Zohner, Constantin M.

AU - Mo, Lidong

AU - Renner, Susanne S.

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

AU - Vitasse, Yann

AU - Benito, Blas M.

AU - Ordonez, Alejandro

AU - Baumgarten, Frederik

AU - Bastin, Jean François

AU - Sebald, Veronica

AU - Reich, Peter B.

AU - Liang, Jingjing

AU - Nabuurs, Gert Jan

AU - De-Migueln, Sergio

AU - Alberti, Giorgio

AU - Antón-Fernández, Clara

AU - Balazy, Radomir

AU - Brändli, Urs Beat

AU - Chen, Han Y.H.

AU - Chisholm, Chelsea

AU - Cienciala, Emil

AU - Dayanandan, Selvadurai

AU - Fayle, Tom M.

AU - Frizzera, Lorenzo

AU - Gianelle, Damiano

AU - Jagodzinski, Andrzej M.

AU - Jaroszewicz, Bogdan

AU - Jucker, Tommaso

AU - Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian

AU - Khan, Mohammed Latif

AU - Kim, Hyun Seok

AU - Korjus, Henn

AU - Johannsen, Vivian Kvist

AU - Laarmann, Diana

AU - Langn, Mait

AU - Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Tomasz

AU - Niklaus, Pascal A.

AU - Paquette, Alain

AU - Pretzsch, Hans

AU - Saikia, Purabi

AU - Schall, Peter

AU - Seben, Vladimír

AU - Svoboda, Miroslav

AU - Tikhonova, Elena

AU - Viana, Helder

AU - Zhang, Chunyu

AU - Zhao, Xiuhai

AU - Crowther, Thomas W.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

AB - Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

KW - Climate change

KW - Freezing damage

KW - Late frost

KW - Phenology

KW - Spring leaf-out

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1920816117

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1920816117

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32393624

AN - SCOPUS:85084230084

VL - 117

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

SN - 0027-8424

IS - 22

ER -

ID: 243293139