Several adoption models have been developed to explain the dynamics behind the uptake of new technologies in food-production systems. However, the literature has yet to consider a range of external forces that affect farmers’ decision-making processes. We argue that climate change and institutions are latent explanatory variables that require attention in the literature on aquatic-based innovations. Our aim is to conduct an ex-ante analysis focusing on these two external forces in the context of aquaculture and the adoption of aquaponics technology in Colombia. We use an embedded case-study design incorporating a qualitative and exploratory approach and employ two categories of fish-farming production systems as units of analysis. We triangulate our findings using non-probability sampling techniques and use our findings as a benchmark to discuss the potential adoption of aquaponics technology. Our findings suggest that fluctuations in rainfall and drought are the most important climate variables influencing negatively fish farming activities. Furthermore, we find that the complex institutional structures involved create unequal informal mechanisms among fish-farming production systems. We argue for context-specific designs when considering the adoption of aquaponics and conclude that, while fish-farming production systems encounter these external forces differently, heterogeneity also exists within systems, revealing intricacies worth considering.