Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change. / Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Borgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jorgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten Høgh.

In: Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 535, 04.2016, p. 301-317.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Karlsson, IB, Sonnenborg, TO, Refsgaard, JC, Trolle, D, Borgesen, CD, Olesen, JE, Jeppesen, E & Jensen, KH 2016, 'Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 535, pp. 301-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069

APA

Karlsson, I. B., Sonnenborg, T. O., Refsgaard, J. C., Trolle, D., Borgesen, C. D., Olesen, J. E., Jeppesen, E., & Jensen, K. H. (2016). Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 535, 301-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069

Vancouver

Karlsson IB, Sonnenborg TO, Refsgaard JC, Trolle D, Borgesen CD, Olesen JE et al. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change. Journal of Hydrology. 2016 Apr;535:301-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069

Author

Karlsson, Ida B. ; Sonnenborg, Torben O. ; Refsgaard, Jens Christian ; Trolle, Dennis ; Borgesen, Christen Duus ; Olesen, Jorgen E. ; Jeppesen, Erik ; Jensen, Karsten Høgh. / Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change. In: Journal of Hydrology. 2016 ; Vol. 535. pp. 301-317.

Bibtex

@article{c28e87fd995a4c638b9f4b1870cd6a0f,
title = "Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change",
abstract = "Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authoritieswhen risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objectiveof this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrologicalmodel. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated usingsimilar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios.The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance duringcalibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations wereeven higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause littlechange in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differencesin hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilaritiesin hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominantfactor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.",
keywords = "Climate change impact, Hydrological model structure, Uncertainties, Land use changes",
author = "Karlsson, {Ida B.} and Sonnenborg, {Torben O.} and Refsgaard, {Jens Christian} and Dennis Trolle and Borgesen, {Christen Duus} and Olesen, {Jorgen E.} and Erik Jeppesen and Jensen, {Karsten H{\o}gh}",
year = "2016",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069",
language = "English",
volume = "535",
pages = "301--317",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology",
issn = "0022-1694",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

AU - Karlsson, Ida B.

AU - Sonnenborg, Torben O.

AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian

AU - Trolle, Dennis

AU - Borgesen, Christen Duus

AU - Olesen, Jorgen E.

AU - Jeppesen, Erik

AU - Jensen, Karsten Høgh

PY - 2016/4

Y1 - 2016/4

N2 - Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authoritieswhen risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objectiveof this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrologicalmodel. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated usingsimilar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios.The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance duringcalibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations wereeven higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause littlechange in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differencesin hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilaritiesin hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominantfactor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

AB - Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authoritieswhen risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objectiveof this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrologicalmodel. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated usingsimilar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios.The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance duringcalibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations wereeven higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause littlechange in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differencesin hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilaritiesin hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominantfactor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

KW - Climate change impact

KW - Hydrological model structure

KW - Uncertainties

KW - Land use changes

U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069

DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069

M3 - Journal article

VL - 535

SP - 301

EP - 317

JO - Journal of Hydrology

JF - Journal of Hydrology

SN - 0022-1694

ER -

ID: 167477802