PhD defence: Camilo Tomazini Pedrollo

Camilo Tomazini Pedrollo defends his thesis,

Secondary Vegetation Dynamics and Agroecological Forest Restoration in Pará, Brazilian Amazon

Zoom link: Camilo Tomazini Pedrollo

Supervisors:
Associate professor Inge Stupak, IGN
Professor Karsten Raulund-Rasmussen, IGN

Assessment Committee:
Associate Researcher Carlos M. Souza Jr., Imazon, Brazil
Professor Joern Fischer, Leuphana, University Lüneburg, Germany
Associate professor Laura Vang Rasmussen (chair), IGN

Summary:
Amid the global push for forest restoration during the United Nations General Assembly's Decade of Ecosystems Restoration (2021-2030), this PhD thesis sheds light on the intersection between secondary vegetation (SV) dynamics and the strategies for promoting long-lasting forest restoration. As an alternative, productive agroecological tree-based farming systems (agroforests) emerge. I focused on Pará, the second-largest state in the Brazilian Amazon, covering 1,2 million km2. Initially, I studied the spatiotemporal patterns of SV dynamics under the light of Forest Transition Theory, the potential land use drivers influencing its distribution and cover change over a nine-year period (2010-2018), and the effectiveness of related policies. Therefore, the first paper reveals a steady increase in SV, with SV1 class (up to five years of age) varying from 17,497 km2 area in 2010 to 27,776 km2 in 2018, and SV2 class (over five years of age) varying from 30,459 km2 to 37,419 km2. The share of SV was particularly abundant in pioneer fronts of deforestation, and even more at the state’s Northeastern mesoregion. The study highlights the importance of 25 factors (out of 39 initial candidate explanatory variables grouped into five clusters: biophysical, economic/infrastructure, land tenure, land use cover, and restrictions of use), with the potential to influence SV distribution and dynamics according to regression modeling analyses. The impact of the Normative Ruling on SV was assessed, not showing consistent effects for increasing SV regrowth. The second paper explores the potential of Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) adoption by farmers in the NE Pará. Combining interviews with 26 experts and 27 farmers, I assessed barriers and motivators for a large-scale regional developmental restoration plan. The study indicated a near consensual view that active restoration through agroforestry is the most suitable FLR approach for the mesoregion, by offering a combination of economic and environmental benefits. The role of land tenure and the rural environmental registry (CAR) is highlighted, supported by a statistical regression model. The third paper employs a simplified Multicriteria Decision Analysis assessment to identify priority areas for FLR in NE Pará. By integrating the results from the two other papers, it underscores the relevance of spatial explicit factors in Structured Decision Making to foster sustainable landscape planning, discussed under the light of the Theory of Change. The study suggests a simplified methodology to attain consensus between different social groups, and a consensual prioritization map is presented. Collectively, these three studies offer a comprehensive perspective on forest restoration and SV dynamics. They provide valuable insights into sustainable land use practices and policy design to promote ecosystem recovery, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complex interplay between ecological, socioeconomic, and institutional factors to support effective agroecological transitions in the tropics.

A digital version of the PhD thesis can be obtained from the PhD secretary at phd@ign.ku.dk