Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

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  • Jennifer A. Holm
  • David M. Medvigy
  • Benjamin Smith
  • Jeffrey S. Dukes
  • Beier, Claus
  • Mikhail Mishurov
  • Xiangtao Xu
  • Jeremy W. Lichstein
  • Craig D. Allen
  • Larsen, Klaus Steenberg
  • Yiqi Luo
  • Cari Ficken
  • William T. Pockman
  • William R.L. Anderegg
  • Anja Rammig

Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling-experimental conceptual framework.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftBiogeosciences
Vol/bind20
Udgave nummer11
Sider (fra-til)2117-2142
Antal sider26
ISSN1726-4170
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2023

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
Funding for the meetings that facilitated this work was provided by NSF-DEB-0955771: An Integrated Network for Terrestrial Ecosystem Research on Feedbacks to the Atmosphere; ClimatE (INTERFACE): Linking experimentalists, ecosystem modelers, and Earth System modelers, hosted by Purdue University; and Climate Change Manipulation Experiments in Terrestrial Ecosystems: Networking and Outreach (COST action ClimMani – ES1308), led by the University of Copenhagen. Jennifer A. Holm's time was supported as part of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments–Tropics, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. Anja Rammig received funding from the CLIMAX Project funded by Belmont Forum and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Benjamin Smith and Mikhail Mishurov received support from the Strategic Research Area MERGE. William R. L. Anderegg received funding from the University of Utah Global Change and Sustainability Center, NSF grant 1714972, and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Programme, Ecosystem Services and Agro-ecosystem Management, grant no. 2018-67019-27850. Jeremy W. Lichstein received support from the Northern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service (agreement 16-JV-11242306-050) and a sabbatical fellowship from sDiv, the Synthesis Centre of iDiv (DFG FZT 118, 202548816). Craig D. Allen received support from the USGS Land Change Science R&D Program.

Funding Information:
We thank Belinda Medlyn and David Ellsworth of the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, for providing the meteorological forcing data series for the EucFACE site, a facility supported by the Australian Government through the Education Investment Fund and the Department of Industry and Science, in partnership with Western Sydney University.

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