Standard
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment. / Abbott, Benjamin W.; Jones, Jeremy B.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Bowden, William B.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Epstein, Howard E.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Harms, Tamara K.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Tank, Suzanne E.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Vonk, Jorien E.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Aiken, George R.; Alexander, Heather D.; Amon, Rainer M. W.; Benscoter, Brian W.; Bergeron, Yves; Bishop, Kevin; Blarquez, Olivier; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Breen, Amy L.; Buffam, Ishi; Cai, Yihua; Carcaillet, Christopher; Carey, Sean K.; Chen, Jing M.; Chen, Han Y. H.; Christensen, Torben R.; Cooper, Lee W.; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; de Groot, William J.; DeLuca, Thomas H.; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Fetcher, Ned; Finlay, Jacques C.; Forbes, Bruce C.; French, Nancy H. F.; Gauthier, Sylvie; Girardin, Martin P.; Goetz, Scott J.; Goldammer, Johann G.; Gough, Laura; Grogan, Paul; Guo, Laodong; Higuera, Philip E.; Hinzman, Larry; Hu, Feng Sheng; Hugelius, Gustaf; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Jandt, Randi; Johnstone, Jill F.; Karlsson, Jan; Kasischke, Eric S.; Kattner, Gerhard; Kelly, Ryan; Keuper, Frida; Kling, George W.; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Kouki, Jari; Kuhry, Peter; Laudon, Hjalmar; Laurion, Isabelle; Macdonald, Robie W.; Mann, Paul J.; Martikainen, Pertti J.; McClelland, James W.; Molau, Ulf; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Olefeldt, David; Pare, David; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Payette, Serge; Peng, Changhui; Pokrovsky, Oleg S.; Rastetter, Edward B.; Raymond, Peter A.; Raynolds, Martha K.; Rein, Guillermo; Reynolds, James F.; Robards, Martin; Rogers, Brendan M.; Schaedel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Sky, Jasper; Spencer, Robert G. M.; Starr, Gregory; Striegl, Robert G.; Teisserenc, Roman; Tranvik, Lars J.; Virtanen, Tarmo; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Zimov, Sergei.
In:
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 3, 034014, 03.2016.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Harvard
Abbott, BW, Jones, JB, Schuur, EAG, Chapin, FSIII, Bowden, WB, Bret-Harte, MS, Epstein, HE, Flannigan, MD, Harms, TK, Hollingsworth, TN, Mack, MC, McGuire, AD, Natali, SM, Rocha, AV, Tank, SE, Turetsky, MR, Vonk, JE, Wickland, KP, Aiken, GR, Alexander, HD, Amon, RMW, Benscoter, BW, Bergeron, Y, Bishop, K, Blarquez, O, Bond-Lamberty, B, Breen, AL, Buffam, I, Cai, Y, Carcaillet, C, Carey, SK, Chen, JM, Chen, HYH, Christensen, TR, Cooper, LW, Cornelissen, JHC, de Groot, WJ, DeLuca, TH, Dorrepaal, E, Fetcher, N, Finlay, JC, Forbes, BC, French, NHF, Gauthier, S, Girardin, MP, Goetz, SJ, Goldammer, JG, Gough, L, Grogan, P, Guo, L, Higuera, PE, Hinzman, L, Hu, FS, Hugelius, G, Jafarov, EE, Jandt, R, Johnstone, JF, Karlsson, J, Kasischke, ES, Kattner, G, Kelly, R, Keuper, F, Kling, GW, Kortelainen, P, Kouki, J, Kuhry, P, Laudon, H, Laurion, I, Macdonald, RW, Mann, PJ, Martikainen, PJ, McClelland, JW, Molau, U, Oberbauer, SF, Olefeldt, D, Pare, D, Parisien, M-A, Payette, S, Peng, C, Pokrovsky, OS, Rastetter, EB, Raymond, PA, Raynolds, MK, Rein, G, Reynolds, JF, Robards, M, Rogers, BM, Schaedel, C, Schaefer, K
, Schmidt, IK, Shvidenko, A, Sky, J, Spencer, RGM, Starr, G, Striegl, RG, Teisserenc, R, Tranvik, LJ, Virtanen, T, Welker, JM & Zimov, S 2016, '
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment',
Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 3, 034014.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014APA
Abbott, B. W., Jones, J. B., Schuur, E. A. G., Chapin, F. S. III., Bowden, W. B., Bret-Harte, M. S., Epstein, H. E., Flannigan, M. D., Harms, T. K., Hollingsworth, T. N., Mack, M. C., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Rocha, A. V., Tank, S. E., Turetsky, M. R., Vonk, J. E., Wickland, K. P., Aiken, G. R., ... Zimov, S. (2016).
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment.
Environmental Research Letters,
11(3), [034014].
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014Vancouver
Abbott BW, Jones JB, Schuur EAG, Chapin FSIII, Bowden WB, Bret-Harte MS et al.
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment.
Environmental Research Letters. 2016 Mar;11(3). 034014.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014Author
Abbott, Benjamin W. ; Jones, Jeremy B. ; Schuur, Edward A. G. ; Chapin, F. Stuart, III ; Bowden, William B. ; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia ; Epstein, Howard E. ; Flannigan, Michael D. ; Harms, Tamara K. ; Hollingsworth, Teresa N. ; Mack, Michelle C. ; McGuire, A. David ; Natali, Susan M. ; Rocha, Adrian V. ; Tank, Suzanne E. ; Turetsky, Merritt R. ; Vonk, Jorien E. ; Wickland, Kimberly P. ; Aiken, George R. ; Alexander, Heather D. ; Amon, Rainer M. W. ; Benscoter, Brian W. ; Bergeron, Yves ; Bishop, Kevin ; Blarquez, Olivier ; Bond-Lamberty, Ben ; Breen, Amy L. ; Buffam, Ishi ; Cai, Yihua ; Carcaillet, Christopher ; Carey, Sean K. ; Chen, Jing M. ; Chen, Han Y. H. ; Christensen, Torben R. ; Cooper, Lee W. ; Cornelissen, J. Hans C. ; de Groot, William J. ; DeLuca, Thomas H. ; Dorrepaal, Ellen ; Fetcher, Ned ; Finlay, Jacques C. ; Forbes, Bruce C. ; French, Nancy H. F. ; Gauthier, Sylvie ; Girardin, Martin P. ; Goetz, Scott J. ; Goldammer, Johann G. ; Gough, Laura ; Grogan, Paul ; Guo, Laodong ; Higuera, Philip E. ; Hinzman, Larry ; Hu, Feng Sheng ; Hugelius, Gustaf ; Jafarov, Elchin E. ; Jandt, Randi ; Johnstone, Jill F. ; Karlsson, Jan ; Kasischke, Eric S. ; Kattner, Gerhard ; Kelly, Ryan ; Keuper, Frida ; Kling, George W. ; Kortelainen, Pirkko ; Kouki, Jari ; Kuhry, Peter ; Laudon, Hjalmar ; Laurion, Isabelle ; Macdonald, Robie W. ; Mann, Paul J. ; Martikainen, Pertti J. ; McClelland, James W. ; Molau, Ulf ; Oberbauer, Steven F. ; Olefeldt, David ; Pare, David ; Parisien, Marc-Andre ; Payette, Serge ; Peng, Changhui ; Pokrovsky, Oleg S. ; Rastetter, Edward B. ; Raymond, Peter A. ; Raynolds, Martha K. ; Rein, Guillermo ; Reynolds, James F. ; Robards, Martin ; Rogers, Brendan M. ; Schaedel, Christina ; Schaefer, Kevin ; Schmidt, Inger Kappel ; Shvidenko, Anatoly ; Sky, Jasper ; Spencer, Robert G. M. ; Starr, Gregory ; Striegl, Robert G. ; Teisserenc, Roman ; Tranvik, Lars J. ; Virtanen, Tarmo ; Welker, Jeffrey M. ; Zimov, Sergei. / Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2016 ; Vol. 11, No. 3.
Bibtex
@article{9b6e810d5adb4662908d0d0815afc5d7,
title = "Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment",
abstract = "As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%?85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.",
keywords = "permafrost carbon, Arctic, boreal, wildfire, dissolved organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, coastal erosion",
author = "Abbott, {Benjamin W.} and Jones, {Jeremy B.} and Schuur, {Edward A. G.} and Chapin, {F. Stuart, III} and Bowden, {William B.} and Bret-Harte, {M. Syndonia} and Epstein, {Howard E.} and Flannigan, {Michael D.} and Harms, {Tamara K.} and Hollingsworth, {Teresa N.} and Mack, {Michelle C.} and McGuire, {A. David} and Natali, {Susan M.} and Rocha, {Adrian V.} and Tank, {Suzanne E.} and Turetsky, {Merritt R.} and Vonk, {Jorien E.} and Wickland, {Kimberly P.} and Aiken, {George R.} and Alexander, {Heather D.} and Amon, {Rainer M. W.} and Benscoter, {Brian W.} and Yves Bergeron and Kevin Bishop and Olivier Blarquez and Ben Bond-Lamberty and Breen, {Amy L.} and Ishi Buffam and Yihua Cai and Christopher Carcaillet and Carey, {Sean K.} and Chen, {Jing M.} and Chen, {Han Y. H.} and Christensen, {Torben R.} and Cooper, {Lee W.} and Cornelissen, {J. Hans C.} and {de Groot}, {William J.} and DeLuca, {Thomas H.} and Ellen Dorrepaal and Ned Fetcher and Finlay, {Jacques C.} and Forbes, {Bruce C.} and French, {Nancy H. F.} and Sylvie Gauthier and Girardin, {Martin P.} and Goetz, {Scott J.} and Goldammer, {Johann G.} and Laura Gough and Paul Grogan and Laodong Guo and Higuera, {Philip E.} and Larry Hinzman and Hu, {Feng Sheng} and Gustaf Hugelius and Jafarov, {Elchin E.} and Randi Jandt and Johnstone, {Jill F.} and Jan Karlsson and Kasischke, {Eric S.} and Gerhard Kattner and Ryan Kelly and Frida Keuper and Kling, {George W.} and Pirkko Kortelainen and Jari Kouki and Peter Kuhry and Hjalmar Laudon and Isabelle Laurion and Macdonald, {Robie W.} and Mann, {Paul J.} and Martikainen, {Pertti J.} and McClelland, {James W.} and Ulf Molau and Oberbauer, {Steven F.} and David Olefeldt and David Pare and Marc-Andre Parisien and Serge Payette and Changhui Peng and Pokrovsky, {Oleg S.} and Rastetter, {Edward B.} and Raymond, {Peter A.} and Raynolds, {Martha K.} and Guillermo Rein and Reynolds, {James F.} and Martin Robards and Rogers, {Brendan M.} and Christina Schaedel and Kevin Schaefer and Schmidt, {Inger Kappel} and Anatoly Shvidenko and Jasper Sky and Spencer, {Robert G. M.} and Gregory Starr and Striegl, {Robert G.} and Roman Teisserenc and Tranvik, {Lars J.} and Tarmo Virtanen and Welker, {Jeffrey M.} and Sergei Zimov",
year = "2016",
month = mar,
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing",
number = "3",
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire
T2 - an expert assessment
AU - Abbott, Benjamin W.
AU - Jones, Jeremy B.
AU - Schuur, Edward A. G.
AU - Chapin, F. Stuart, III
AU - Bowden, William B.
AU - Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
AU - Epstein, Howard E.
AU - Flannigan, Michael D.
AU - Harms, Tamara K.
AU - Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
AU - Mack, Michelle C.
AU - McGuire, A. David
AU - Natali, Susan M.
AU - Rocha, Adrian V.
AU - Tank, Suzanne E.
AU - Turetsky, Merritt R.
AU - Vonk, Jorien E.
AU - Wickland, Kimberly P.
AU - Aiken, George R.
AU - Alexander, Heather D.
AU - Amon, Rainer M. W.
AU - Benscoter, Brian W.
AU - Bergeron, Yves
AU - Bishop, Kevin
AU - Blarquez, Olivier
AU - Bond-Lamberty, Ben
AU - Breen, Amy L.
AU - Buffam, Ishi
AU - Cai, Yihua
AU - Carcaillet, Christopher
AU - Carey, Sean K.
AU - Chen, Jing M.
AU - Chen, Han Y. H.
AU - Christensen, Torben R.
AU - Cooper, Lee W.
AU - Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
AU - de Groot, William J.
AU - DeLuca, Thomas H.
AU - Dorrepaal, Ellen
AU - Fetcher, Ned
AU - Finlay, Jacques C.
AU - Forbes, Bruce C.
AU - French, Nancy H. F.
AU - Gauthier, Sylvie
AU - Girardin, Martin P.
AU - Goetz, Scott J.
AU - Goldammer, Johann G.
AU - Gough, Laura
AU - Grogan, Paul
AU - Guo, Laodong
AU - Higuera, Philip E.
AU - Hinzman, Larry
AU - Hu, Feng Sheng
AU - Hugelius, Gustaf
AU - Jafarov, Elchin E.
AU - Jandt, Randi
AU - Johnstone, Jill F.
AU - Karlsson, Jan
AU - Kasischke, Eric S.
AU - Kattner, Gerhard
AU - Kelly, Ryan
AU - Keuper, Frida
AU - Kling, George W.
AU - Kortelainen, Pirkko
AU - Kouki, Jari
AU - Kuhry, Peter
AU - Laudon, Hjalmar
AU - Laurion, Isabelle
AU - Macdonald, Robie W.
AU - Mann, Paul J.
AU - Martikainen, Pertti J.
AU - McClelland, James W.
AU - Molau, Ulf
AU - Oberbauer, Steven F.
AU - Olefeldt, David
AU - Pare, David
AU - Parisien, Marc-Andre
AU - Payette, Serge
AU - Peng, Changhui
AU - Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
AU - Rastetter, Edward B.
AU - Raymond, Peter A.
AU - Raynolds, Martha K.
AU - Rein, Guillermo
AU - Reynolds, James F.
AU - Robards, Martin
AU - Rogers, Brendan M.
AU - Schaedel, Christina
AU - Schaefer, Kevin
AU - Schmidt, Inger Kappel
AU - Shvidenko, Anatoly
AU - Sky, Jasper
AU - Spencer, Robert G. M.
AU - Starr, Gregory
AU - Striegl, Robert G.
AU - Teisserenc, Roman
AU - Tranvik, Lars J.
AU - Virtanen, Tarmo
AU - Welker, Jeffrey M.
AU - Zimov, Sergei
PY - 2016/3
Y1 - 2016/3
N2 - As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%?85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
AB - As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%?85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
KW - permafrost carbon
KW - Arctic
KW - boreal
KW - wildfire
KW - dissolved organic carbon
KW - particulate organic carbon
KW - coastal erosion
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
M3 - Journal article
VL - 11
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
SN - 1748-9326
IS - 3
M1 - 034014
ER -
