Forecasting the human and climate impacts on groundwater resources in the irrigated agricultural region of North China Plain

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  • Haorui Chen
  • Mousong Wu
  • Zheng Duan
  • Yuanyuan Zha
  • Songhan Wang
  • Long Yang
  • Liangchao Zou
  • Minjie Zheng
  • Peng Chen
  • Wei Cao
  • Wenxin Zhang
Climate change has caused significant impacts on water resource redistribution around the world and posed a great threat in the last several decades due to intensive human activities. The impacts of human water use and management on regional water resources remain unclear as they are intertwined with the impacts of climate change. In this study, we disentangled the impact of climate-induced human activities on groundwater resources in a typical region of the semi-arid North China Plain based on a process-oriented groundwater modelling approach accounting for climate-human-groundwater interactions. We found that the climate-induced human effect is amplified in water resources management (‘amplifying effect’) for our study region under future climate scenarios. We specifically derived a tipping point for annual precipitation of 350 mm, below which the climate-induced human activities on groundwater withdrawal will cause significant ‘amplifying effect’ on groundwater depletion. Furthermore, we explored the different pumping scenarios under various climate conditions and investigated the pumping thresholds, which the pumping amount should not exceed (4 × 107 m3) in order to control future groundwater level depletion. Our results highlight that it is critical to implement adaptive water use practices, such as water-saving irrigation technologies in the semi-arid regions, in order to mitigate the negative impacts of groundwater overexploitation, particularly when annual precipitation is anomalously low.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummere14853
TidsskriftHydrological Processes
Vol/bind37
Udgave nummer3
Antal sider16
ISSN0885-6087
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2023

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the National Research Program (NK2022180403), Key Science and Technology Project for Revitalization of Inner Mongolia of China (2022EEDSKJXM004, 2021EEDSCXSFQZD010), National Natural Science Foundation of China (42111530184, 41901266), and the Open Funding of State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering (SKLFSE201914). Zheng Duan is grateful for the funding from The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS, No. 2019‐01296) and The Crafoord Foundation (No. 20200595). Wenxin Zhang acknowledges fundings from the Swedish Research Council VR 2020‐05338 and Swedish National Space Agency 209/19. This study contributes to the strategic research areas Modeling the Regional and Global Earth System (MERGE) and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate (BECC) at Lund University.

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the National Research Program (NK2022180403), Key Science and Technology Project for Revitalization of Inner Mongolia of China (2022EEDSKJXM004, 2021EEDSCXSFQZD010), National Natural Science Foundation of China (42111530184, 41901266), and the Open Funding of State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering (SKLFSE201914). Zheng Duan is grateful for the funding from The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS, No. 2019-01296) and The Crafoord Foundation (No. 20200595). Wenxin Zhang acknowledges fundings from the Swedish Research Council VR 2020-05338 and Swedish National Space Agency 209/19. This study contributes to the strategic research areas Modeling the Regional and Global Earth System (MERGE) and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate (BECC) at Lund University.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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