Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise
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Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Tidsskrift | Nature climate change |
| Vol/bind | 12 |
| Antal sider | 11 |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| DOI | |
| Status | Udgivet - 2022 |
Bibliografisk note
Funding Information:
This work was developed under the International Arctic Science Committee Network on Arctic Glaciology. X.F. provided the MAR SMB data. B.N. provided the RACMO SMB data. B.W. provided the GRACE/GRACE-FO data. A.B. provided the ice cap naming information. We thank G. Aðalgeirsdóttir and S. Nowicki for comments that helped improve an earlier version of this manuscript. This work was completed with support from the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities via PROMICE. A.H. holds a research professorship from the Research Council of Norway (project no. 223259) and an Academy of Finland ArcI visiting fellowship to the University of Oulu. B.W. received an NWO VIDI grant no. 016.VIDI.171.063. B.N. received an NWO VENI grant no. VI.Veni.192.019. X.F. received support from the following: Netherlands Earth System Science Centre MvdB; Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif; Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.FNRS) 2.5020.11; and Tier-1 supercomputer (Zenobe), Fédération Wallonie Bruxelles infrastructure funded by the Walloon Region under grant no. 1117545.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
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