TY - RPRT

T1 - Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes

T2 - (Deliverable No: 11.2: / EC Contract Ref: FP7-ENV-2010-265104)

AU - Kuemmerle, Tobias

AU - Stürck, Julia

AU - Levers, Christian

AU - Müller, Daniel

AU - Erb, Karlheinz

AU - Gingrich, Simone

AU - Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck

AU - Kastner, Thomas

AU - Verkerk, Pieter Johannes

AU - Verburg, Peter H.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Module VISIONS seeks to identify critical pathways to reach desired futures for land systems (i.e., visions). In order to do so, work package (WP) 11 links the model-based scenarios (module ASSESSMENT) to the visions formulated derived in a transdisciplinary process together with stakeholders. Within WP11, deliverable 11.2 documents three analyses carried out to interpret the scenario outcomes in light of the insights gained from studying recent and longterm land use change (module PROCESSES): (1) a delineation and mapping of high-level, typical land change trajectories; (2) an assessment of future developments of current land change archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system trajectories. Synthesizing across these analyses, six key insights emerged. First, future land change was relatively similar across marker scenarios and different policy alternatives, for many regions in Europe, suggesting strong path dependency. Second, the impact of policy options can differ (a) between regions in Europe and (b) among marker scenarios, highlighting the need for contextualized, regionalized policy making. Third, the expansion and intensification of agriculture were projected to be particularly strong in a world with fewer interventions. Nature protection schemes as well as payments for ecosystem services were the most effective policy alternatives constraining future agricultural intensification. Fourth, land systems will likely continue to become more polarized with intensified production and abandonment of marginal areas continuing. Fifth, future land changes were projected to be well within the range of longterm historic land system changes. Finally, modelled scenarios generally suggest gradual, though not always linear future land system trends, overall rather indicating a continuation of prevailing management regimes rather than drastic regime shifts.

AB - Module VISIONS seeks to identify critical pathways to reach desired futures for land systems (i.e., visions). In order to do so, work package (WP) 11 links the model-based scenarios (module ASSESSMENT) to the visions formulated derived in a transdisciplinary process together with stakeholders. Within WP11, deliverable 11.2 documents three analyses carried out to interpret the scenario outcomes in light of the insights gained from studying recent and longterm land use change (module PROCESSES): (1) a delineation and mapping of high-level, typical land change trajectories; (2) an assessment of future developments of current land change archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system trajectories. Synthesizing across these analyses, six key insights emerged. First, future land change was relatively similar across marker scenarios and different policy alternatives, for many regions in Europe, suggesting strong path dependency. Second, the impact of policy options can differ (a) between regions in Europe and (b) among marker scenarios, highlighting the need for contextualized, regionalized policy making. Third, the expansion and intensification of agriculture were projected to be particularly strong in a world with fewer interventions. Nature protection schemes as well as payments for ecosystem services were the most effective policy alternatives constraining future agricultural intensification. Fourth, land systems will likely continue to become more polarized with intensified production and abandonment of marginal areas continuing. Fifth, future land changes were projected to be well within the range of longterm historic land system changes. Finally, modelled scenarios generally suggest gradual, though not always linear future land system trends, overall rather indicating a continuation of prevailing management regimes rather than drastic regime shifts.

M3 - Report

BT - Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes

PB - VOLANTE

ER -