Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands

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Standard

Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands. / Zhang, Wenmin; Fensholt, Rasmus; Brandt, Martin.

I: Geophysical Research Letters, Bind 50, Nr. 15, e2023GL103932, 2023.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt

Harvard

Zhang, W, Fensholt, R & Brandt, M 2023, 'Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands', Geophysical Research Letters, bind 50, nr. 15, e2023GL103932. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103932

APA

Zhang, W., Fensholt, R., & Brandt, M. (2023). Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(15), [e2023GL103932]. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103932

Vancouver

Zhang W, Fensholt R, Brandt M. Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands. Geophysical Research Letters. 2023;50(15). e2023GL103932. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103932

Author

Zhang, Wenmin ; Fensholt, Rasmus ; Brandt, Martin. / Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands. I: Geophysical Research Letters. 2023 ; Bind 50, Nr. 15.

Bibtex

@article{b9a22802ce5e46f1b3b1ec0c72a3bdda,
title = "Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands",
abstract = "Projection of future woody cover is essential to understand potential changes in structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Previous studies mapped woody cover during historical periods observed by satellites, however, it remains unclear how woody cover is expected to change in response to future climate change. Here, we develop data-driven models to predict woody cover in Africa using multiple environmental predictors and show that woody cover can be accurately modeled using Random Forest. Empirically-based simulations forced by precipitation from CMIP6 project an overall increase in woody cover at the continental scale by 2100. However, increases are mainly occurring in regions with annual precipitation less than ∼1,600 mm y−1, whereas woody cover is predicted to decrease in areas of higher rainfall. Our results suggest that climate change may alter the functioning of dryland ecosystems by continued woody encroachment and cause a loss of carbon stocks in humid areas.",
author = "Wenmin Zhang and Rasmus Fensholt and Martin Brandt",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors.",
year = "2023",
doi = "10.1029/2023GL103932",
language = "English",
volume = "50",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "15",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projected Rainfall-Driven Expansion of Woody Cover in African Drylands

AU - Zhang, Wenmin

AU - Fensholt, Rasmus

AU - Brandt, Martin

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Projection of future woody cover is essential to understand potential changes in structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Previous studies mapped woody cover during historical periods observed by satellites, however, it remains unclear how woody cover is expected to change in response to future climate change. Here, we develop data-driven models to predict woody cover in Africa using multiple environmental predictors and show that woody cover can be accurately modeled using Random Forest. Empirically-based simulations forced by precipitation from CMIP6 project an overall increase in woody cover at the continental scale by 2100. However, increases are mainly occurring in regions with annual precipitation less than ∼1,600 mm y−1, whereas woody cover is predicted to decrease in areas of higher rainfall. Our results suggest that climate change may alter the functioning of dryland ecosystems by continued woody encroachment and cause a loss of carbon stocks in humid areas.

AB - Projection of future woody cover is essential to understand potential changes in structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Previous studies mapped woody cover during historical periods observed by satellites, however, it remains unclear how woody cover is expected to change in response to future climate change. Here, we develop data-driven models to predict woody cover in Africa using multiple environmental predictors and show that woody cover can be accurately modeled using Random Forest. Empirically-based simulations forced by precipitation from CMIP6 project an overall increase in woody cover at the continental scale by 2100. However, increases are mainly occurring in regions with annual precipitation less than ∼1,600 mm y−1, whereas woody cover is predicted to decrease in areas of higher rainfall. Our results suggest that climate change may alter the functioning of dryland ecosystems by continued woody encroachment and cause a loss of carbon stocks in humid areas.

U2 - 10.1029/2023GL103932

DO - 10.1029/2023GL103932

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85166735360

VL - 50

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 15

M1 - e2023GL103932

ER -

ID: 362696724